Irrelevant thing. I just want to throw this here. This is the challenge if you get into forex.
This is something I made up along the way while I write. Purpose is to clear up my own confusion. I just aware that I wrote super long, so TL;DR is at the end of post. You can just skip ahead.
This will be 3TF analysis. So it will start with BB.
I will also assume we trade on daily for the sake of example. (And I just have issues with M5, or anything below D1 really)
Big Boss. First, just scroll out the chart so at least you can see the big picture. For monthly, generally you going to get all of the data.
Before you even starting to draw SR on it, get the big picture of PA. There is 2 type of PA analysis per TF. First is Big Picture PA.
Big picture, you want to get what price is doing overall. If the price is moving2You not gonna trade anything that price isn’t moving in forex, so don’t even think about asking that, you can either see one of these 3 scenario. Triangle, Ranging Channel or Trend. Here are some examples.
(oh gosh is so hard to find a proper monthly trend right now)
Only do these with major swing. Why these first? These actually create Dynamic SRs that we will be using later. Actually there is more. With major swing, you might also want to put your fib here.
These are used for confluences. With SR on, it usually blind you away from these moves.
Also, once you figuring this out, you generally know what are the major movement likely to be. If not, at minimum it give you some extra point of interest.
Then, now is the time we add in SR through major swings. We will be doing our SR analysis. Though you might also want to get some weaker SR if its pretty relevant.
Though there are some relativity. Depend on the pairs you trade, the way you trade, you would consider what is major and what is minor differently. As well as how much SR you going to keep.
By the way, these chart’s Monthly candle CLOSED. We are at June 29 Saturday, that means Monday is going to be next month. That means I can take the last candle into my analysis now.
So we the SR ready, now I’m going to do my 2nd type/part/category of the PA analysis, the close up PA analysis.
WARNING: THIS DOES NOT THROW AWAY THE PREVIOUS BIG PICTURE PA ANALYSIS. YOUR CLOSE UP PA ANALYSIS SHOULD BE TAKING PREVIOUS ANALYSIS INTO ACCOUNT.
In this chart, just first glance, these are the PA that you could pick up.
- A strong hammer3Also sometime hammer happen to be o#2556 (hitting fib 61.8 and retrace as we knew the confluence earlier)4direction change to up
- BUEB “confirmed” the hammer5a continuous up which ‘fail for immediate candle’
- BEOB just overwrite what happened after testing Strat Shadow6direction change to down
- IB happened with shooting star-ish shape that resisted by broken triangle line7IB really could be anything
- somewhat big BEEB, these usually followed by8o#3177 9down continuous, which again, ‘fail for immediate candle’
- a profit taking-ish candle that doesn’t really qualify as any of the PA candle I learn before.
Surprise surprise, unless the PA are shouting on immediate direction change10DIRECTION CHANGE!! NOT CONTINUOUS, it often turn out to be some profit taking when the trend is not super strong. Anyway, we just need to remember this when we take the direction. Oh and also Dr Joe.
So what direction we will take from this? Just eyeballing. Dr Joe way.
This is also the time you can start adjusting your SR to fit recent data.
SR area does not work for me. Though it could work for you, I don’t know. You do you.
Next, leave all your PA analysis at monthly chart. This include all the TLs, fibs, etc etc. The only thing that you carry to Weekly analysis are: 1) A Direction, 2) SRs.
Now we come to BOSS/weekly. Again, we are going to start from BIG PICTURE PA. We could redraw our triangles if they are relevant. However, this time, if we do redraw them, use Weekly’s data instead.
However, this time with Weekly’s swings, we also see a trends that formed inside the triangle. Though that is not so irrelevant for now that I’ll remove it for now.
So in big picture, basically we are trending down. I did not see anything relevant with fib. I did not see any price pattern11The more obvious the price pattern, the more self fulling it is. Reason being o#29 that I recognize.
Move to SR analysis, so, the immediate relevant SR would be… (I’m also moving my SR to fit weekly)
Also, we are still in Control Candle. Hmmm… Look at that (Close up PA analysis incoming)
We can try to read the candle, read the context and the reason behind them behave such a way. See beyond the candle. Honestly, that’s really not for me right now. As someone who is as ‘thinkative’ like me, I can make up an explanation for both up and down. I’d like something clearer. WCC? Pausing. What happen next? Wait for price. Full Stop.
There is the confluence between broken triangle line and wcc top that is close to SR. So, its pretty strong. I’ll say is bearish. Also this pair is harder to trade as there are mix signals (strong downward momentum with BUEB and hammer-ish doji as lastest PAs). There could be easier trades in the future or other pairs. This is basically already a stay out call. However, for educational purposes, I’ll continue to daily, assuming I got a strong bearish in weekly.
Worker, daily. Again leave those macro PA analysis from weekly at weekly. Only bring down SRs.
In BIG PICTURE, trend is ended for now. Will it continue or not, does not really matter for us right now. We got ourself a triangle, and just broken up.
SR analysis, I don’t see the need for me to add additional SR right now.
So close up analysis. We have an BUOB HL that cover 4 candles. Then followed by BUEB that cover 2 candles. Pretty bullish. Now we have ourselves in Strat Shadow, between wcc and broken triangle line with half baked BUEB hammer-ish candle.
DO NOT TRADE AGAINST THE BOSS UNLESS BOSS GIVE REASON TO DO SO.
2 types of PA Analysis: 1) Big Picture 2) Close Up
Big Picture 3 Major Scenarios 1) Trending 2) Ranging 3) Triangle, each contributing some sort of TL SR
Big Picture need to aware of 1) 3 Scenarios 2) Price Patterns 3) Fibs 4) Strat Shadow’s size, angles and polarity
Close Up need to aware of 1) PA Candles 2) Price relative to Strat Shadow 3) Price Relative to SR 4) context 5) Relative to upper TF momentum* 6) Relative to Big Picture
SR Analysis, confluences is important.
When in conflict, just stay away. If mostly pointing to one direction, just go for it even if it just against that one or two thing.
Consolidation/Trading Range has not ended UNTIL there is a CLOSE above the long white line.
The trend does not start UNTIL there is a CLOSE above the doji shooting star at the top of the range at “”T“”
Power of Time Frames
1) We take our direction from the BIG BOSS (Monthly)
2) We take our direction (and sometimes trades) from the BOSS (Weekly)
3) We time and initiate our trades on the Worker (Daily)
So, when we do an analysis of a pair or any financial instrument for that matter:
We identify our SR levels
We find out where the BIG BOSS is relative to ITS trend AND where it is headed in the SHORT TERM relative to ITS SR levels
Knowing the direction of the BIG BOSS, we review the BOSS. If the BOSS is fighting the BIG BOSS, it will be very difficult to trade so we WAIT until the BOSS aligns herself with the BIG BOSS.
With the BIG BOSS and BOSS now in harmony (both moving together in the same direction) we drop down to the Worker.
We wait for the Worker to give us PASR in the direction of the BIG BOSS and BOSS. Rewarding and stress free trades come when we time the Worker JUST TURNING into the direction of the BIG BOSS and BOSS at PASR (as shown on the attached chart)
The MOST REWARDING and STRESS FREE trade comes when you can time the Worker turning into the direction of the BIG BOSS at THE SAME TIME as the BOSS turns into the direction of the BIG BOSS.
It sounds SIMPLE and it really is that SIMPLE but to make it stress free we MUST trade with PASR. Trying to guess trades is the best known way to blow an account.
Since learning everything doesn’t work, I’ll have to stop myself from passively doing it as well. Confuse is not the right word to describe, losing direction is a better description.
So the point is, learn enough, then practice intensively to be profitable.
Another issue I come across is, my trading plan isn’t tight enough, so there will be time I miss good entries, and went in bad entries. So I need to have a couple rules that says if these happen, must entry.
So after restudy and restructuring from PASR thread, here is the three major confirmation of PASR entry.
I’ll let it be summary in this post, get into detail later along the way of this blog.1Again, these are just confirmation, not the setups.
1. Common Chart Pattern In Fractal
I’ll refer this as PASR chart pattern, but then it probably called trend line break out or something like that, but it really is not.
The main concept of this is just keep buying every retracement until it reverse, and avoid consolidation.
I don’t think this is hard to understand, but it sure take some time to aware that it is important when it is deep into the thread. 2Especially when English is not your main language, and you take everything literally what it mean, then you f**k up. So I’ll just post some example.
2. Confluence of SR
This is just straight forward. When horizontal SR confluence with at least 2 other tools including Strat Shadow, 200ema, boss/BB SR, fib, TL or DSR.
I prefer prioritizing TL and 200ema, when either of these 2 confluence with Strat Shadow and SR, it usually pretty strong.
3. Time Frame Harmony
It can be summarized in n#430.
Here is an example for USDCAD.
And another one for AUDCAD
There is still a couple unanswered questions about this though:
- Can I use PASR Chart Pattern to determine whether currently is bullish or bearish?
- Does every single closed PA on BB chart matter? How do I work with them?
However, just to reduce the complexity, determine where PRICE is now relative to SR and current momentum would be enough.
It needed to be simple and effective. Anything that add complexity to PASR I will kind of leave them aside for now.
Here is the thing, any Daily PASR setup that fulfill minimum of 2 confirmations above is a must entry. If I miss any PASR setup that have all 3 confirmations, I’ll do a hundred push up(unless there is valid reason).
Exit is more about discipline. This I will cover next time. So I will be focusing on Daily Chart as usual. However, since it only take 15-20min a day3Strat said that. It usually take 2 hrs for me., I will have the rest of my time trading 5min or doing 1min bootcamp.
So it will probably be something like –
– wake up, check Daily chart, find all potential 5min good trades of last closed, post them on here & forum, reply forum4with short answer due to time
– back from work, trade 5min or m1 bootcamp depend on market, reply forum if necessary
– free time, read from n#1 to n#1000, and only focus on these 50 pages. I can’t understand everything even if I read slowly anyway, so focusing on learning enough rather than learning all would help.
Of course, let’s see how long this will last. First journal lasted 3 days, 2nd journal roughly lasted 3 weeks. Third attempt here I go.